Back in 2018, it took just eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position & Settled Debates
In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on Europe
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.
David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
- Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.
An Alarming Document & Geopolitical Considerations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction because of immigration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from concluding that this renders America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past
All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Risk and A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.
It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
